Diamond S. a new business model for shipping?

The Diamond S deal with Cido for a US$ 1 bn block purchase of product tankers has been the talk of the town, especially with the involvement of 'King of Bankruptcy' Wilbur Ross who has decided to enter shipping and bankroll a large portion of this project. From the feel of this venture backed by private equity First Reserve and Ross, it seems more likely to be a flipover asset play rather than an effort to create a long-term shipping business like TeeKay with intrinsic value.

The venture starts with some very positive factors. Craig Stevenson is a successful, proven CEO in the shipping sector with an enviable track record. First Reserve successfully backed the Corbin Robertson venture Quintana, which was sold at a very timely moment to Excel Maritime (who has been struggling under the asset impairment and weight of the purchase debt leverage ever since).

The CIDO assets are young and come with period employment said to be on the average 5-years. The project is well capitalized with US$ 600 mio equity and US$ 400 bank debt. If the market takes a further leg down, they can withstand the drop in asset values on their existing fleet and they have ample reserves to purchase additional assets at lower values. If the market starts to improve, they will reap the benefits of higher asset values so that they can float an IPO at a premium for First Reserve to exit with some profits for the risks and lighten up on its holding.

Craig Stevenson sold OMI and lost his key people for which he is now busily trying to rehire. It is unlikely that he is going to have any trouble in building a new shipping organization.

Stevenson openly states that he means to keep the product carriers on period charter for secured income and will put his larger Suezmax newbuilding to the spot market to take advantage of spot market volatility.

The only case where this venture could disappoint is with a double dip recession that delays significantly the timing of a market recovery. The premium paid on the Cido assets will begin to seem a liability and the investors will face time and opportunity losses on their position unable to liquidate according to plan. Flipping the business over for a quick profit would start to feel illusory.  They might find themselves as long term investors that they had not anticipated.

It is still far too early to tell how this venture will fare. Personally, I am not sure that asset speculation and quick flip-over deals are good for the long term health of the shipping industry. In the past, this has led to chronic overcapacity and low rates. The companies that purchase the marked up assets usually have problems unless the timing of the deal is very early in the cycle so that they can ride a further leg up.